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ML-QuantIssue No. 136

Quant research, ranked weekly.

Every Friday we screen every new arXiv, SSRN and RePEc paper, rank the best 30 per venue, pull each paper's key figure, and track what happens to it afterwards. Free for people. Open to agents.

Issues
136
Papers featured
6,756
Cited 100+ times
228
Quants on the radar
10.6k
Subscribe freeRead No. 136
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This week's top picks

From issue No. 136. All 90 papers →

  1. arXiv · No. 101

    Information Injection Attacks on LLM Traders

    Fabricated news reaches 62% attack success against LLM trading agents, far exceeding prompt injection, with surface-form credibility cues mattering more than content accuracy.

    Fanfare 4ML & AI Methods
    Information injection threat model
  2. SSRN · No. 102

    ML Value-at-Risk Validation Under Regime Shifts

    Fanfare 4Risk, Credit & Banking

    The study shows that machine-learning VaR models passing standard backtests breach risk limits two to nine times worse in stressed regimes, revealing false comfort in current regulatory validation.

  3. RePEc · No. 103

    AI Productivity Gains Boost GDP Growth

    Fanfare 4ML & AI Methods
    Software engineering payroll share vs
  4. SSRN · No. 204

    Option-Implied Moments Predict Returns and Volatility

    Fanfare 4Asset Pricing & Factors

    Using 3.8 billion option contracts, the study finds implied kurtosis predicts five-day returns with 2.33 Sharpe ratio and improves volatility forecasting by 23.3 percent.

  5. RePEc · No. 205

    Human Capital Concentration in Venture Capital

    Fanfare 4Asset Pricing & Factors
    Panel A displays the likelihood for whether a VC professional is included on the Midas list in a given year based on

What's rising

Topics drawing unusually many papers this week.

  1. Market making

    1.8×

    2.3% of this week's 696 new papers, 1.8x its share over the previous 4 weeks (1.3%).

    In this issue

  2. Prediction markets

    1.8×

    2.4% of this week's 696 new papers, 1.8x its share over the previous 4 weeks (1.4%).

    In this issue

  3. DeFi

    1.8×

    2.0% of this week's 696 new papers, 1.8x its share over the previous 4 weeks (1.1%).

    In this issue

GitHub radar

What the quant community starred on GitHub this week, from a panel of 10,589 developers who follow financial machine learning (285 of the 859 we checked starred something). Counts only: we never publish who starred what.

Quant repos rising

  1. Open-Dev-Society/OpenStock2 quants

    Open-source market platform tracking real-time stock prices and alerts.

    ★ 20.8k+511 this weekTypeScript

  2. shiyu-coder/Kronos2 quants

    Foundation model for the language of financial markets.

    ★ 43.4k+2,562 this weekPython

  3. simonlin1212/Vibe-Research2 quants

    Research workbench for China A-shares, US and HK stocks.

    ★ 2,782+63 this weekTypeScript

  4. 666ghj/MiroFish2 quants

    Swarm intelligence engine for financial forecasting and predictions.

    ★ 81.4k+1,689 this weekPython

What quants are playing with

  1. google-research/harness243 quants

    Unknown tool with no description provided.

    ★ 18.3k+17.6k this weekPythonNew repo

  2. deepseek-ai/DeepInfer23 quants

    High-performance large-scale inference framework for DeepSeek models.

    ★ 20.6k+20.6k this weekPythonNew repo

  3. morluto/rea15 quants

    Reverse engineer anything with agents from app behavior to binaries.

    ★ 370k+76.1k this weekTypeScript

  4. Ephemeral-AI-Lab/layerfs8 quants

    Ephemeral workspaces with durable shared history and parallel agent support.

    ★ 1,978+1,529 this weekRustNew repo

  5. xerj-org/xerj8 quants

    Local-first search engine and MCP server for AI agent memory.

    ★ 13.3k+6,242 this weekRust

  6. withmarbleapp/os-taxonomy8 quants

    Unknown tool with no description provided.

    ★ 7,258+2,250 this weekJavaScript

The radar, explained →

We called it

Every featured paper is tracked on Semantic Scholar. Of the finance papers we featured when new, 26% are now in journals.

  1. 517

    FinGPT: Open-Source Financial Large Language Models

    Featured 14 Jun 2023, 5 days after release

  2. 271

    FinMem: A Performance-Enhanced LLM Trading Agent With Layered Memory and Character Design

    Featured 29 Nov 2023, 6 days after release · IEEE Transactions on Big Data

  3. 245

    HybridRAG: Integrating Knowledge Graphs and Vector Retrieval Augmented Generation for Efficient Information Extraction

    Featured 15 Aug 2024, 6 days after release · Proceedings of the 5th ACM International Conference on AI in Finance

  4. 243

    TradingAgents: Multi-Agents LLM Financial Trading Framework

    Featured 1 Jan 2025, 4 days after release

  5. 195

    TKAN: Temporal Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks

    Featured 15 May 2024, 3 days after release

  6. 145

    Instruct-FinGPT: Financial Sentiment Analysis by Instruction Tuning of General-Purpose Large Language Models

    Featured 28 Jun 2023, 6 days after release

The full track record →

Browse by topic

Papers featured per quarter since May 2023.

  1. Crypto & DeFi

    Crypto & DeFi: papers featured per quarter

    Crypto assets, DeFi, stablecoins and blockchain markets.

    • Factors Influencing Cryptocurrency Prices: Evidence from Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dash, Litcoin, and Monero
    • Decentralised Finance and Automated Market Making: Execution and Speculation

    311 papers

  2. LLMs & Text

    LLMs & Text: papers featured per quarter

    Large language models, agents, sentiment and text as data in finance.

    • DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models
    • Mistral 7B

    591 papers

  3. Derivatives & Volatility

    Derivatives & Volatility: papers featured per quarter

    Option pricing, volatility models and forecasting, hedging and implied surfaces.

    • Risk Revisited
    • Rough Volatility: Fact or Artefact?

    899 papers

  4. Trading, Microstructure & Execution

    Trading, Microstructure & Execution: papers featured per quarter

    Order books, market making, execution, high-frequency data and trading signals.

    • FAST: Efficient Action Tokenization for Vision-Language-Action Models
    • Deep Reinforcement Learning for Active High Frequency Trading

    593 papers

  5. Portfolio & Allocation

    Portfolio & Allocation: papers featured per quarter

    Portfolio construction, allocation, rebalancing and risk budgeting, from Markowitz to deep RL.

    • Missing values handling for machine learning portfolios
    • Technical Note - An Unexpected Stochastic Dominance: Pareto Distributions, Dependence, and Diversification

    645 papers

  6. Risk, Credit & Banking

    Risk, Credit & Banking: papers featured per quarter

    Credit risk, default prediction, banking, systemic risk and risk measures.

    • Attention-based Dynamic Multilayer Graph Neural Networks for Loan Default Prediction
    • Moderating effects of gender and family responsibilities on the relations between work–family policies and job performance

    401 papers

  7. Asset Pricing & Factors

    Asset Pricing & Factors: papers featured per quarter

    Factor models, anomalies, the cross-section of returns and what survives publication.

    • Bubble economics
    • NUMOSIM: A Synthetic Mobility Dataset with Anomaly Detection Benchmarks

    293 papers

  8. Macro-Finance & Rates

    Macro-Finance & Rates: papers featured per quarter

    Rates, the yield curve, monetary policy, inflation and macro-finance.

    • The disruption index is biased by citation inflation
    • Inflation—Who Cares? Monetary Policy in Times of Low Attention

    296 papers

  9. Econometrics & Forecasting

    Econometrics & Forecasting: papers featured per quarter

    Forecasting, time series, econometrics and nowcasting.

    • TKAN: Temporal Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks
    • Deep learning models for price forecasting of financial time series: A review of recent advancements: 2020–2022

    328 papers

  10. ML & AI Methods

    ML & AI Methods: papers featured per quarter

    Machine-learning methods applied to finance: deep learning, boosting, RL and new architectures.

    • Mamba: Linear-Time Sequence Modeling with Selective State Spaces
    • Octo: An Open-Source Generalist Robot Policy

    1,163 papers

  11. Corporate Finance

    Corporate Finance: papers featured per quarter

    Firms, governance, IPOs, M&A and corporate decisions.

    • ESG Reputation Risk Matters: An Event Study Based on Social Media Data
    • Articulate AnyMesh: Open-Vocabulary 3D Articulated Objects Modeling

    170 papers

Recent issues

136 issues since May 2023.

Week 4

No. 136 · October 2026, Week 4

This week spans AI risk in trading, neural microstructure learning, and the frontier's limits. Key tensions emerge: LLM traders fall to information attacks while benchmarks show no leading model beats equal-weight; neural filters cut arbitrage uncertainty eightfold yet ML VaR models hide regime-shift failures. Mean-fi…

  1. Information Injection Attacks on LLM Traders
  2. ML Value-at-Risk Validation Under Regime Shifts
  3. AI Productivity Gains Boost GDP Growth

90 papers · arXiv 30 · SSRN 30 · RePEc 30

Week 3

No. 135 · October 2026, Week 3

This week pivots toward machine learning in discovery and execution. Foundation models learn market regimes from order flow; genetic programming and RL agents discover alpha factors across assets and frequencies. But a survey of 47 LLM trading systems finds reported margins vanish on retest, and a massive pre-register…

  1. Foundation Models Learn Market Regimes
  2. LLM-Based Trading Systems Survey
  3. Large Language Models in Economics Research

90 papers · arXiv 30 · SSRN 30 · RePEc 30

Week 2

No. 134 · October 2026, Week 2

This week centers on AI systemic risk, factor discovery limits, and monetary transmission channels. Agentic AI systems create non-diversifiable contagion floors despite fleet size; automated factor mining shows no paradigm dominates; and Fed policy transmits primarily through risk appetite shifts rather than rates. Se…

  1. Agentic AI and Systemic Financial Risk
  2. Quantitative Equity Evolution: Constraints and Alpha Decay
  3. Risk Appetite and Monetary Transmission

90 papers · arXiv 30 · SSRN 30 · RePEc 30

Week 1

No. 133 · October 2026, Week 1

This week centers on AI's expanding role in trading and markets, alongside persistent microstructure patterns and monetary policy transmission. Key papers: "AI Trading Methods: Backtests Versus Real Markets" measures the live-market gap for machine learning and LLM strategies; "Certified Alpha Capacity and Decay" deri…

  1. Certified Alpha Capacity and Decay
  2. Bond Signals Predict Next-Month Equity Returns
  3. AI and Corporate Bond Pricing

90 papers · arXiv 30 · SSRN 30 · RePEc 30

Week 4

No. 132 · September 2026, Week 4

This week balances methodological rigor with practical market insights. Tail risk estimation and time-series validation trade-offs address foundational modeling challenges, while label engineering and LLM look-ahead bias expose common pitfalls in factor and AI development. Key reads: Semi-Discrete Optimal Transport, T…

  1. Tail Risk via Semi-Discrete Optimal Transport
  2. Artificial Intelligence and Financial Markets
  3. Agentic AI Systems Beat Asset Pricing Benchmarks

90 papers · arXiv 30 · SSRN 30 · RePEc 30

Week 3

No. 131 · May 2026, Week 3

10 RePEc · 10 GitHub · 10 Podcasts · 7 Papers with code

  1. Predicting VIX with ML
  2. Optimizing KSE-30 with ML
  3. Risk Parity in Fat-Tailed Markets

44 papers

The whole archive →

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The week's best arXiv, SSRN and RePEc papers, each in one sentence, with its key figure. Plus what quant developers are starring on GitHub and which of our past picks just got published.

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